With all the GMs out there hungry for starting pitching, you'd think we would be hearing more about Ryan Vogelsong this winter. But according to MLB Trade Rumors, the only mention of Vogelsong has been a Baggs groove in early December that the Giants "expect" to sign him to a multi-year contract. (Just imagine if Vogelsong gets a long-term deal before Opening Day but Cain and Lincecum don't; rabies shots for everyone!)
It's cold to ask after such a heartwarming 2011, but might it behoove the Giants to shop Vogelsong around? I'm assuming that the lack of rumorage indicates they haven't done so. No one's even bothered to make stuff up, like "sources close to the Florida front office indicate that the team has had discussions about potentially thinking about Vogelsong."
If no one's been thinking about Vogelsong, it's not because he's due too much in arbitration. According to MLBTR's arb-estimation formula, Vogey can expect something like $2.5 million, which is but a quarter of the value he produced in 2011. He could fade quite a bit from that high-water mark and still be a bargain. And there was nothing in his performance last year to suggest he'll drive off a cliff as soon as he collects his arbo-millions.
Despite the top-10 ERA year, I could see how GMs would be reluctant to trade much for Vogelsong, a 34-year-old who, well, you know the story. He certainly wouldn't bring in trade the type of tasty prospect pickins Oakland and San Diego received respectively for Trevor Cahill and Mat Latos. But what about an intriguing hitter, a you-take-a-flyer-on-my-guy, and-I'll-do-the-same-with-yours kind of trade, something akin to Jonathan Sanchez for Melky Cabrera?
I'm not advocating this, by the way. Trading Ryan Vogelsong would leave Eric Surkamp and Barry Zito alone in the back of the rotation, and there are only so many 86-MPH left-handed fastballs a guy can tolerate every five days. Which brings me to the reason I think we've heard nothing: The Giants have no intention of trading him. Unless he falls off that aforementioned cliff -- and the Giants don't think he will -- he'll help prevent the team from staring into the abyss of its lack of minor-league pitching depth. (How's that for a paradoxical abyss?) Behind Surkamp, there's...
Ta-da! No one. Unless you count Shane Loux. There are some interesting arms from recent drafts, but no young guys in the high minors who could fill in adequately in 2012 with an eye toward a regular rotation slot in 2013. Shockingly for the Giants, the prospect tilt is all the way to the hitter side now that Zack Wheeler is gone. (It should be noted that Wheeler probably wouldn't have fit the near-term bill, either. It'll be interesting to see if the Mets start him next year in Double-A and how many innings they'll let him work beyond the 115 he threw in 2011.)
Trading Vogelsong and finding a replacement in the scrap heap, something I would expect the Giants to do better than most franchises, isn't a sound strategy, either. As Grant noted earlier today, there are interesting, or at least familiar names lining up to stake a claim to the Vogeltitle. And wouldn't it be great if Boof Bonser -- John? Is that you? -- really truly finally showed up? But trade Vogelsong, figuring that one among Bonser, or Yusmiero Petit, or Casey Daigle, or alas, poor Matt Yourkin, will do an adequate replacement job? No way no how.
Which, I'll repeat, is fine with me. More Vogelsong, please. The Giants don't have much choice. Still, it would be interesting to see his name show up in the trade rumor column a few times between now and April, just to know other teams care.
It's cold to ask after such a heartwarming 2011, but might it behoove the Giants to shop Vogelsong around? I'm assuming that the lack of rumorage indicates they haven't done so. No one's even bothered to make stuff up, like "sources close to the Florida front office indicate that the team has had discussions about potentially thinking about Vogelsong."
If no one's been thinking about Vogelsong, it's not because he's due too much in arbitration. According to MLBTR's arb-estimation formula, Vogey can expect something like $2.5 million, which is but a quarter of the value he produced in 2011. He could fade quite a bit from that high-water mark and still be a bargain. And there was nothing in his performance last year to suggest he'll drive off a cliff as soon as he collects his arbo-millions.
Despite the top-10 ERA year, I could see how GMs would be reluctant to trade much for Vogelsong, a 34-year-old who, well, you know the story. He certainly wouldn't bring in trade the type of tasty prospect pickins Oakland and San Diego received respectively for Trevor Cahill and Mat Latos. But what about an intriguing hitter, a you-take-a-flyer-on-my-guy, and-I'll-do-the-same-with-yours kind of trade, something akin to Jonathan Sanchez for Melky Cabrera?
I'm not advocating this, by the way. Trading Ryan Vogelsong would leave Eric Surkamp and Barry Zito alone in the back of the rotation, and there are only so many 86-MPH left-handed fastballs a guy can tolerate every five days. Which brings me to the reason I think we've heard nothing: The Giants have no intention of trading him. Unless he falls off that aforementioned cliff -- and the Giants don't think he will -- he'll help prevent the team from staring into the abyss of its lack of minor-league pitching depth. (How's that for a paradoxical abyss?) Behind Surkamp, there's...
Ta-da! No one. Unless you count Shane Loux. There are some interesting arms from recent drafts, but no young guys in the high minors who could fill in adequately in 2012 with an eye toward a regular rotation slot in 2013. Shockingly for the Giants, the prospect tilt is all the way to the hitter side now that Zack Wheeler is gone. (It should be noted that Wheeler probably wouldn't have fit the near-term bill, either. It'll be interesting to see if the Mets start him next year in Double-A and how many innings they'll let him work beyond the 115 he threw in 2011.)
Trading Vogelsong and finding a replacement in the scrap heap, something I would expect the Giants to do better than most franchises, isn't a sound strategy, either. As Grant noted earlier today, there are interesting, or at least familiar names lining up to stake a claim to the Vogeltitle. And wouldn't it be great if Boof Bonser -- John? Is that you? -- really truly finally showed up? But trade Vogelsong, figuring that one among Bonser, or Yusmiero Petit, or Casey Daigle, or alas, poor Matt Yourkin, will do an adequate replacement job? No way no how.
Which, I'll repeat, is fine with me. More Vogelsong, please. The Giants don't have much choice. Still, it would be interesting to see his name show up in the trade rumor column a few times between now and April, just to know other teams care.
