Let's wrap up the day's arbitration news. No surprises on the Giants front unless you count the $6 million figure for Melky Cabrera, and in the comments of the previous post, longtime reader OGC argues convincingly that it wasn't an overpay.
The Giants have offered $17 million to Tim Lincecum, his peoples have asked for $21.5 million, both record numbers, and if they split the difference, it's one more notch in my arb-eligible contest bandolier. (I predicted 1 year, $19 million.) If the two sides use the same modus operandi that resulted in Lincecum's previous contract, they'll go up to the precipice of a hearing and shake hands on something like a two-year, $39 million deal. I'd love to see a four-year extension, but I could live with another two-year deal and steel myself for the probability of Lincecum testing extremely lucrative free-agent waters -- think Scrooge McDuck diving into his swimming pool of cash -- and becoming a non-Giant after the 2013 system.
Pablo Sandoval signed a three-year extension that buys out his arbitration years but none of his free agent years. Three years, $17.15 M guaranteed with incentives, says Baggs. (The breakdown: $3.2 M, $5.7 M, $8.25 M.) Nearly nailed it, I did. My guess is the incentives were the key to this deal, the carrot (literally?) dangled in front of the Panda that the Giants hope will keep his off-season discipline from wavering. If he comes to camp looking like one of the featured attractions of the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade, we'll know that for Pablo, the sweet smell of success was wafting into his hotel room from the Popeye's Chicken next door.
Others to settle on one-year deals: Nate Schierholtz ($1.3 M), Santiago Casilla ($2.2 million), Melky Cabrera ($6 M) and Angel Pagan ($4.8 M). No word yet on Sergio Romo, who apparently asked for $1.75 M, with the Giants offering $1.3 M. (I'm pulling my figures from the MLBTR Arbitration Tracker.)
A few other thoughts:
- The trades of Jonathan Sanchez, Ramon Ramirez and Andres Torres were certainly not about saving money. Sanchez agreed to a smaller contract than his trade counterpart Cabrera; Ramirez and Torres' new contracts add up to half a million more than Pagan's deal. Call it a wash. Which means the Giants don't seem concerned about clearing a little room for near-future additions. That became obvious in the Carlos Beltran drama, but I'm now thinking ahead to mid-year. Will the ownership demand that any additional salaries be balanced by cost savings? I'm keeping a close watch out for stories with hints from people close to knowledgeable sources familiar with Larry Baer's personal grooming habits that allude to payroll being frozen at Opening Day and not budging a goddamn inch, so don't even ask.
- In case anyone had any illusions, keeping Lincecum and Matt Cain long-term will require somewhere between $45 M and $50 M a year at the far reaches of the contracts. With Lincecum likely to make $20M-plus in 2013, any discussion of a Cain extension (which would start in 2013) probably has something north of $20 M as an average annual value. The Giants will not be able to afford both unless their farm system becomes Brave-like in its ability to pump out cheap young star after cheap young star, or unless they vault themselves into the Phillosphere, the layer of gas and cloud that's well above where most teams play but a couple layers below the Yankosphere and the Bostosphere.
- This is the last year the Giants will be so freakishly consistent with -- and stubbornly devoted to -- their bullpen personnel. Someone look this up for me: When was the last time a team ended one year, played the next full year, and started a third year with six of the same relief pitchers? Barring trades, Wilson, Romo, Affeldt, Casilla, Mota and Lopez have a good chance of being bullpen mates for two full seasons. You could technically throw Dan Runzler in there, too. But after 2012, Wilson is eligible for arbitration once more, and he'll command at least $10 M. I won't be surprised if Lopez ($4.25 M in the second year of the contract he just signed) is the highest-paid reliever on the team in 2013.
The Giants have offered $17 million to Tim Lincecum, his peoples have asked for $21.5 million, both record numbers, and if they split the difference, it's one more notch in my arb-eligible contest bandolier. (I predicted 1 year, $19 million.) If the two sides use the same modus operandi that resulted in Lincecum's previous contract, they'll go up to the precipice of a hearing and shake hands on something like a two-year, $39 million deal. I'd love to see a four-year extension, but I could live with another two-year deal and steel myself for the probability of Lincecum testing extremely lucrative free-agent waters -- think Scrooge McDuck diving into his swimming pool of cash -- and becoming a non-Giant after the 2013 system.
Pablo Sandoval signed a three-year extension that buys out his arbitration years but none of his free agent years. Three years, $17.15 M guaranteed with incentives, says Baggs. (The breakdown: $3.2 M, $5.7 M, $8.25 M.) Nearly nailed it, I did. My guess is the incentives were the key to this deal, the carrot (literally?) dangled in front of the Panda that the Giants hope will keep his off-season discipline from wavering. If he comes to camp looking like one of the featured attractions of the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade, we'll know that for Pablo, the sweet smell of success was wafting into his hotel room from the Popeye's Chicken next door.
Others to settle on one-year deals: Nate Schierholtz ($1.3 M), Santiago Casilla ($2.2 million), Melky Cabrera ($6 M) and Angel Pagan ($4.8 M). No word yet on Sergio Romo, who apparently asked for $1.75 M, with the Giants offering $1.3 M. (I'm pulling my figures from the MLBTR Arbitration Tracker.)
A few other thoughts:
- The trades of Jonathan Sanchez, Ramon Ramirez and Andres Torres were certainly not about saving money. Sanchez agreed to a smaller contract than his trade counterpart Cabrera; Ramirez and Torres' new contracts add up to half a million more than Pagan's deal. Call it a wash. Which means the Giants don't seem concerned about clearing a little room for near-future additions. That became obvious in the Carlos Beltran drama, but I'm now thinking ahead to mid-year. Will the ownership demand that any additional salaries be balanced by cost savings? I'm keeping a close watch out for stories with hints from people close to knowledgeable sources familiar with Larry Baer's personal grooming habits that allude to payroll being frozen at Opening Day and not budging a goddamn inch, so don't even ask.
- In case anyone had any illusions, keeping Lincecum and Matt Cain long-term will require somewhere between $45 M and $50 M a year at the far reaches of the contracts. With Lincecum likely to make $20M-plus in 2013, any discussion of a Cain extension (which would start in 2013) probably has something north of $20 M as an average annual value. The Giants will not be able to afford both unless their farm system becomes Brave-like in its ability to pump out cheap young star after cheap young star, or unless they vault themselves into the Phillosphere, the layer of gas and cloud that's well above where most teams play but a couple layers below the Yankosphere and the Bostosphere.
- This is the last year the Giants will be so freakishly consistent with -- and stubbornly devoted to -- their bullpen personnel. Someone look this up for me: When was the last time a team ended one year, played the next full year, and started a third year with six of the same relief pitchers? Barring trades, Wilson, Romo, Affeldt, Casilla, Mota and Lopez have a good chance of being bullpen mates for two full seasons. You could technically throw Dan Runzler in there, too. But after 2012, Wilson is eligible for arbitration once more, and he'll command at least $10 M. I won't be surprised if Lopez ($4.25 M in the second year of the contract he just signed) is the highest-paid reliever on the team in 2013.
