*Formerly misspelled as "exultation." Dear copy editor: You're fired.
Let's assume for a moment that this off-season is a harbinger of things to come. The Giants will focus on their farm system, sign homegrown guys to long-term contracts, not go overboard for free agents (in fact, barely even toss them a life preserver), and when trading, do so cautiously and from a position of strength.
The most obvious position of strength in the next year or two or four is behind the plate.
There's Buster Posey, of course. Forever Buster. The Giants will trade Buster the same day they ask Too Short to rap "I Left My Heart (And My Bitches) In San Francisco" before the first pitch.
Then there's Hector Sanchez, 21, who did the Panda Leap in 2011, from Single A to the bigs, although without the same playing time and batting success as the 21-year-old Pablo Sandoval pulled off in 2008.
Then there's Tommy Joseph, who will likely be the starting catcher in Double-A Richmond, and he turns 21 in July. (More on Joseph in a moment.) Finally there's Andrew Susac, whom the Giants drafted last summer in the second round. He's slated to start in High-A San Jose and is already in Top-10 Giant prospect lists, though with the big caveat that he hasn't yet played a professional game. He turns 22 in March.
As Grant pointed out a couple weeks ago, the odds of just one among Sanchez, Joseph and Susac becoming an exciting major leaguer are slim. That realization makes people like me with itchy right-clickable mouse fingers immediately start wondering about trades. Wasn't that what the winter was all about?
Seven starting pitchers? Trade one.
Lots of bullpen guys with Twitter accounts? Trade the one without.
Identify the surplus and see who out there wants some. Problem is, a catching surplus can turn into a surfeit faster than you can make a slight left turn while doing a barrel roll into the general home plate vicinity. We'd all love Buster Posey to wear the orange-and-french-vanilla tools of ignorance til he's old and Fisk, but two things: the nasty, nasty injury, and his batsmanship.
I'm not a doctor (although if you want to bend over and cough, I won't say no), but it seems to me his chances of a long productive life of squatting got slimmer that fateful night in May. And if Buster's the hitter we all think he is, the Giants will do all they can to keep him in the lineup as much as possible. A shift to first base, or even third, a la Brandon Inge, is probably in the cards. Not this year (Bochy has given mixed signals on the idea of playing Buster at first on his days off from catching), maybe not the next, but I'll be surprised if in 2017 -- Posey's age-30 season -- the Giants don't have a different starting catcher.
Which brings me to the crux of this post: How should the Giants balance their need for catching depth with their opportunity to trade from surplus? One thing's for sure: None of the three other catchers mentioned are going to fetch much in return right now. Here's a look at big trades of catching prospects in the past few years:
Jesus Montero (+1) for Michael Pineda (+1)
Montero is going to be a great hitter, and everyone's known it for a few years. He's also probably going to be a DH/1B type. This could be Tommy Joseph's profile in a couple years, although for what it's worth I've seen mention that Joseph's defense is getting better. It's hard to imagine Joseph becoming the pure hitting prospect that Montero is, but if Joseph continues to flex the power (36 homers in two minor-league seasons, mostly before his 20th birthday), and gains more plate discipline, he could certainly be more valuable to an AL team than to the Giants.
Derek Norris (+3) for Gio Gonzalez
According to MLB Trade Rumors... Norris, 22, entered the 2011 season as the 72nd best prospect in the game, according to Baseball America. He responded by posting a .210/.367/.446 line in his first stint at Double-A, adding 20 homers and 77 walks.
Other than the batting average, that's a nice line. If Joseph posts that in the pitcher-friendly Eastern League this year, I'd be thrilled (yes, even with that batting average). Note though, that the Nats needed three more players to land Gonzalez from the A's. There's a chance they got fleeced -- Jeff Sullivan called it a "great haul" for the Beanes -- but it's probably safe to say that top catching prospects not named Jesus Montero won't be enough on their own to return front-line, cost-effective major league talent. Same goes for...
Yasmani Grandal (+3) for Mat Latos
I'll let MLBTR tell the story:
Roughly similar to the Nats/A's trade. The Reds had to trade a really good young catcher, plus a lot of other deep talent, to land a top young pitcher (and arguably an ace -- albeit a rude twerp of an ace).
I'll put a few more comps at the end of this post. But for all my trade talk, I seriously doubt anything will happen until next off-season, after the Giants have seen how Posey's reconstructed leg holds up over a full campaign, how Hector Sanchez consolidates his rapid rise (his performance in Venezuelan winter ball was a nice surprise), how Joseph handles the high minors, and how Susac handles pro ball.
Also note that since Brian Sabean overhauled his scouting team in late 2007, the Giants have drafted and/or developed five very interesting catching prospects. If catching, like pitching, has become one of the team's specialties, the brass might be more willing to make trades.
But the record shows it's really hard to trade non-Jesus catchers for big talent unless you throw in a quarter of a farm system, too. And the Giants haven't been inclined of late to do those blockbuster, four-for-one type deals.
To take you out, a few more backstoppish transactions of note...
Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps (July 2010)
Ramos was a top-100 prospect who wasn't hitting well in Triple A at the time of the trade. He is now the Nats' starting catcher and had a fine rookie season. (He also survived a kidnapping in his native Venezuela a few months ago.) If one of the Giants' catching prospects has the same profile in the next year or two, please please please don't trade him for Matt Capps.
Lucas May (+1) for Scott Podsednik (July 2010)
May was 25 at the time and hitting well in the high minors. That was the high water mark. He had a cup of coffee -- cold and decaf, it seems -- with KC that year, and he's bounced around since. But still, Ned CoLOLetti for acquiring Scott Podsednik.
Carlos Santana (+1) for Casey Blake (July 2008)
Did I mention Ned CoLOLetti? Did I mention the fearful symmetry of Casey Blake?
Dioner Navarro (+2) for Randy Johnson, (+4) for Shawn Green
Just for fun. Navarro was once named Yankees' minor leaguer of the year. A year later, he was on his way to Arizona with Javier Vazquez and Brad Halsey for Randy Johnson. The D-Backs flipped him and a bunch of mugs to LA for Shawn Green. Wow. Shawn Green. I'd forgotten all about that guy.
Let's assume for a moment that this off-season is a harbinger of things to come. The Giants will focus on their farm system, sign homegrown guys to long-term contracts, not go overboard for free agents (in fact, barely even toss them a life preserver), and when trading, do so cautiously and from a position of strength.
The most obvious position of strength in the next year or two or four is behind the plate.
There's Buster Posey, of course. Forever Buster. The Giants will trade Buster the same day they ask Too Short to rap "I Left My Heart (And My Bitches) In San Francisco" before the first pitch.
Then there's Hector Sanchez, 21, who did the Panda Leap in 2011, from Single A to the bigs, although without the same playing time and batting success as the 21-year-old Pablo Sandoval pulled off in 2008.
Then there's Tommy Joseph, who will likely be the starting catcher in Double-A Richmond, and he turns 21 in July. (More on Joseph in a moment.) Finally there's Andrew Susac, whom the Giants drafted last summer in the second round. He's slated to start in High-A San Jose and is already in Top-10 Giant prospect lists, though with the big caveat that he hasn't yet played a professional game. He turns 22 in March.
As Grant pointed out a couple weeks ago, the odds of just one among Sanchez, Joseph and Susac becoming an exciting major leaguer are slim. That realization makes people like me with itchy right-clickable mouse fingers immediately start wondering about trades. Wasn't that what the winter was all about?
Seven starting pitchers? Trade one.
Lots of bullpen guys with Twitter accounts? Trade the one without.
Identify the surplus and see who out there wants some. Problem is, a catching surplus can turn into a surfeit faster than you can make a slight left turn while doing a barrel roll into the general home plate vicinity. We'd all love Buster Posey to wear the orange-and-french-vanilla tools of ignorance til he's old and Fisk, but two things: the nasty, nasty injury, and his batsmanship.
I'm not a doctor (although if you want to bend over and cough, I won't say no), but it seems to me his chances of a long productive life of squatting got slimmer that fateful night in May. And if Buster's the hitter we all think he is, the Giants will do all they can to keep him in the lineup as much as possible. A shift to first base, or even third, a la Brandon Inge, is probably in the cards. Not this year (Bochy has given mixed signals on the idea of playing Buster at first on his days off from catching), maybe not the next, but I'll be surprised if in 2017 -- Posey's age-30 season -- the Giants don't have a different starting catcher.
Which brings me to the crux of this post: How should the Giants balance their need for catching depth with their opportunity to trade from surplus? One thing's for sure: None of the three other catchers mentioned are going to fetch much in return right now. Here's a look at big trades of catching prospects in the past few years:
Jesus Montero (+1) for Michael Pineda (+1)
Montero is going to be a great hitter, and everyone's known it for a few years. He's also probably going to be a DH/1B type. This could be Tommy Joseph's profile in a couple years, although for what it's worth I've seen mention that Joseph's defense is getting better. It's hard to imagine Joseph becoming the pure hitting prospect that Montero is, but if Joseph continues to flex the power (36 homers in two minor-league seasons, mostly before his 20th birthday), and gains more plate discipline, he could certainly be more valuable to an AL team than to the Giants.
Derek Norris (+3) for Gio Gonzalez
According to MLB Trade Rumors... Norris, 22, entered the 2011 season as the 72nd best prospect in the game, according to Baseball America. He responded by posting a .210/.367/.446 line in his first stint at Double-A, adding 20 homers and 77 walks.
Other than the batting average, that's a nice line. If Joseph posts that in the pitcher-friendly Eastern League this year, I'd be thrilled (yes, even with that batting average). Note though, that the Nats needed three more players to land Gonzalez from the A's. There's a chance they got fleeced -- Jeff Sullivan called it a "great haul" for the Beanes -- but it's probably safe to say that top catching prospects not named Jesus Montero won't be enough on their own to return front-line, cost-effective major league talent. Same goes for...
Yasmani Grandal (+3) for Mat Latos
I'll let MLBTR tell the story:
Grandal, who turned 23 [in late 2011], shot up the charts by hitting .305/.401/.500 and reaching Triple-A as a 22-year-old. Baseball America ranked him fourth among Reds prospects heading into 2012, writing that he projects as an above average offensive catcher with solid defense. "He has a balanced approach, controls the strike zone and uses the entire field... [he] still has work to do on his receiving and could use a full year in Triple-A."While it's difficult to give up a catcher with that kind of minor league production, the Reds also have Devin Mesoraco, and likely felt they were dealing from a position of depth.
Roughly similar to the Nats/A's trade. The Reds had to trade a really good young catcher, plus a lot of other deep talent, to land a top young pitcher (and arguably an ace -- albeit a rude twerp of an ace).
I'll put a few more comps at the end of this post. But for all my trade talk, I seriously doubt anything will happen until next off-season, after the Giants have seen how Posey's reconstructed leg holds up over a full campaign, how Hector Sanchez consolidates his rapid rise (his performance in Venezuelan winter ball was a nice surprise), how Joseph handles the high minors, and how Susac handles pro ball.
Also note that since Brian Sabean overhauled his scouting team in late 2007, the Giants have drafted and/or developed five very interesting catching prospects. If catching, like pitching, has become one of the team's specialties, the brass might be more willing to make trades.
But the record shows it's really hard to trade non-Jesus catchers for big talent unless you throw in a quarter of a farm system, too. And the Giants haven't been inclined of late to do those blockbuster, four-for-one type deals.
To take you out, a few more backstoppish transactions of note...
Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps (July 2010)
Ramos was a top-100 prospect who wasn't hitting well in Triple A at the time of the trade. He is now the Nats' starting catcher and had a fine rookie season. (He also survived a kidnapping in his native Venezuela a few months ago.) If one of the Giants' catching prospects has the same profile in the next year or two, please please please don't trade him for Matt Capps.
Lucas May (+1) for Scott Podsednik (July 2010)
May was 25 at the time and hitting well in the high minors. That was the high water mark. He had a cup of coffee -- cold and decaf, it seems -- with KC that year, and he's bounced around since. But still, Ned CoLOLetti for acquiring Scott Podsednik.
Carlos Santana (+1) for Casey Blake (July 2008)
Did I mention Ned CoLOLetti? Did I mention the fearful symmetry of Casey Blake?
Dioner Navarro (+2) for Randy Johnson, (+4) for Shawn Green
Just for fun. Navarro was once named Yankees' minor leaguer of the year. A year later, he was on his way to Arizona with Javier Vazquez and Brad Halsey for Randy Johnson. The D-Backs flipped him and a bunch of mugs to LA for Shawn Green. Wow. Shawn Green. I'd forgotten all about that guy.
