* Speaking of Mays Field dimensions, keep a close eye on Nate Schierholtz on this homestand. First, let’s hope that Bochy actually plays him. Second, will he lose hits to right-center? According to his hit chart, he didn’t make any fly ball outs in Death Valley last year. But ask Todd Helton or Adrian Gonzalez — a couple 410’ outs to the warning track can start messing with your head.

* And speaking of Mays Field dimensions again, Aaron Rowand told Andy Baggarly that the 404–foot mark in left-center “seems to haunt me.” Oh, that’s a swell advertisement to lure free agent hitters.

But is 404 really his problem? Let’s look at Rowand’s hit chart. 404 isn’t marked there, but it’s the triangular notch to the left of 399. Assuming these charts are accurate, Rowand has only lost one home run to the 404 notch. Right-center is a bigger power-suck; if the field were of normal proportion, he might have a few more extra base hits, if not home runs. To that we say, “No duh.” Join the club, pal.

* SMALL PRINT UPDATE: Now reading Carl Hiaasen’s Strip Tease. It’s much better without Demi Moore, but not quite as good as the best work from the master of South Florida sleaze, Elmore Leonard. Hiaasen throws in too many pop-culture references that feel like shortcuts to a mood, but let’s not quibble: he’s funny, he keeps up the breakneck pace, and he puts a lot of heart into his characters, even if they’re just a step or two beyond lazy stereotype. (The Congressman who can’t keep it in his pants; the stripper with a heart of gold; the no-good speed freak ex-husband who steals wheelchairs.) It’s a lot more fun than eating a pint of ice cream in one sitting, and better for you.

Greedy bastards. Who do they think Beltre is, Randy Winn? It’s not like Beltre is a switch-hitting gamer who plays all three outfield positions, loves him some Steve Nash and mischievously snaps towels against bare bottoms in the locker room. That kind of guy is worth keeping.

With the unlikely emergence of Pablo Sandoval as a solution at third base next year, it’s possible the Giants’ thoughts about Beltre have cooled. But let’s say the Giants are set on Beltrifying their ‘09 lineup. Obviously Cain and Lincecum are out of the question as trade bait, but what about Jonathan Sanchez? Given his contract status — four more years under the Giants’ control — a straight-up swap is unlikely, too.

Is there a scenario in which a trade of Sanchez for Beltre makes sense? If the M’s are persuaded that Sanchez is in fact the more valuable player, the next step is to find other players in the Seattle system to even things out. (This guy? Nope.) I don’t have a good grasp of their prospects, but a young reliever with a great arm would be a good start. A third baseman with power would also help, because Adrian Beltre won’t likely be a Giant in 2010 and there still isn’t anyone in line to replace him. Conor Gillaspie, you say? Let’s wait for him to have an OPS higher than .700 in the low minors before we anoint him with supple oils.

Even if the Giants consider trading a starting pitcher, I wager they’ll want to see first how Noah Lowry throws in the fall. He’s slated to pitch in the Arizona instructional league; good results and no health setbacks could convince the front office it can spare a starter. And no, Madison Bumgarner, despite his steady rise toward immortality, is not an option for the big-league rotation next year …. though I swore Pablo Sandoval wouldn’t sniff a major-league uniform til next spring, at the earliest, so really, there’s no point in listening to me at all.

Before you answer that, let’s look at some numbers. Cook is generally much better against the Giants than the rest of the league. For his career, batters have a .346 OBP / .422 SLG against him for an OPS of .765. The current Giants roster has a collective .337 / .365 / .702 against him.

But he’s had an odd year against S.F. so far. Three starts, and in each he’s gone 7 innings with 9, 10 and 10 hits allowed and a total of ten runs (seven earned). He’s an extreme sinkerballer, and he’s got it on auto-pilot recently. Over his last four starts his ground ball/fly ball ratio is 51 to 9.

So the Giants best chance is to rev up what Bruce Bochy calls their “ground attack,” and for Winn, Burriss, Velez et al to beat out a few key infield hits or hope a few more grounders than usual find holes.

On the flip side, Barry Zito has been one lucky lefty at Coors Field. His career ERA there is 3.32, but look at the numbers and you wonder how: 19 IP, 27 baserunners, 3 home runs. He’s probably gotten a few double plays at just the right time. But fly-ball pitchers with more walks than strikeouts shouldn’t expect to stay lucky long-term at altitude.   

In the days since, Bruce Jenkins of the Chron wrote a two-part cranky-grandpa complaint about pitchers these days getting mollycoddled, improperly waxing their moustaches, and not throwing enough. Grant had a fine take on Jenkins yesterday, and Andrew Baggarly chimed in today, so I won’t add much more except to say that Jenkins is doing journalism a disservice.

He has some good points. Pitch count is an interesting, important topic that needs more debate. But Jenkins swaddles his arguments in rhetoric more fit for a political convention. “Restore dignity!” “Fear has replaced common sense!” “Follow your instincts!”

The articles are ostensibly a counterpunch to the robotic groupthink of pitch counts and bullpen roles, a development I agree is riddled with stupid, rigid orthodoxy. But scratch the surface more, and you’ll see that Jenkins is no free thinker. He hates curiosity. It’s for losers, and it’s also funny when the starting quarterback stuffs the chess team president into a hall locker. Here’s the heart of Jenkins’ argument: “People can sit around adjusting their spectacles and analyzing, but they have no idea how it feels to actually compete.”

Jenkins adds nothing to the debate. He tells us no one throws complete games anymore, but he doesn’t want to deal with the unknowns. He cherry picks a few famous names — see? Juan Marichal and Vida Blue never had arm problems! — but this is not reporting. Perhaps as a columnist Jenkins gets slack that reporters don’t, because any editor semi-familiar with the topic should have sent this back for more work. (Shame on you, too, Chron sports editor Glenn Schwarz.)

In an examination of The Pitch Count Era, as Jenkins calls it, you’d think he would interview Dr. Jim Andrews or his colleagues in Birmingham, Ala.; or find pitchers from the 1950s, ‘60s, or ‘70s who blew their arms out early and get their opinions; or note that for previous generations, baseball was the only game, there were far more minor league teams, the pool of young pitchers was nearly bottomless, and teams had less incentive to coddle up-and-comers. They were disposable commodities.

Jenkins’ work, as is often the case, is intellectually dishonest. He dismisses arguments about how the game has drastically changed by writing this:

As much as anything, though, the pace of the game has changed. I once asked Leonard Koppett (the sage historian who passed away in 2003) why games of the past were so routinely played in two hours. "They didn't have lights," he said. Pitchers worked quickly, batters went up there hacking, only a minute or so passed between half-innings, and it was all very tidy. Pitchers are infinitely more deliberate today. They require more pitches to get through an inning and the hitters, as a whole, aren't nearly as aggressive. In the era of on-base percentage, it's downright heroic for a batter to be up there taking pitches for a 3-and-1 count.

Ah, yes, the good old days when batters swung at 3–1 pitches a foot outside, the way men do. Pitchers now are deliberate. Hitters aren’t aggressive. It’s like everyone’s out there reading books or something.

Jenkins has good points sometimes. But he proves himself unwilling to do the hard work — yes, it’s possible to do hard work with your mind, too, sometimes while wearing spectacles — perhaps for fear of undermining his strongly-held convictions. It’s easier to talk to Jack Morris, who had to be removed from games with a crowbar, to confirm that yes, things were better back then. It’s sad, and it’s bad journalism.

With all that, I’ll only say one thing about Tim Lincecum throwing 132 pitches last night. The Giants have an off-day tomorrow, so he’ll have five days of rest before his next start. I’ll bet that factored into Bochy’s decision.

Livan has some embarrassing numbers this year, including 13.3 hits and only 3.5 strikeouts per 9 innings. In three starts with the Rockies, who claimed him off the scrap heap from Minnesota, Hernandez has allowed 25 hits and 21 ER in 12 1/3 IP.

Despite strong career numbers against Livan, it would be a fine time to rest Aaron Rowand, who is 2 for his last 18 and has made some terrible throws lately. Jon Miller noted on the radio this week that he couldn’t reach the cutoff on a reasonably easy throw toward third. Given his reputation, you have to wonder if he’s playing hurt. We should probably assume he is.

Often overlooked in all the gamery gamerness this year is the point at which a player stops inspiring his teammates and starts hurting his team because he can’t turn on an inside fastball or make a strong throw from the outfield.

With four years and $48 million left on Rowand’s contract after 2008, the Giants need to get serious about making him rest more. He shouldn’t be a #3 or #4 hitter, but he’s a nice player to have around. Let’s make sure he stays that way by keeping him as healthy as possible. Start with a rest tonight, and let the rest of the Giants knock Livan’s slop all over the yard.

***

SMALL PRINT UPDATE: Matt Palmer had his cup of coffee, or more accurately, spilled most of it on Brian Sabean’s new white cashmere rug, and he’s on his way back to Fresnoville. Osiris Matos is up. Matos or someone else will have to move soon, though, because Jonathan Sanchez is slated to start Monday.

I can remember one such case, I think it was Kelly Stinnett of the Diamondbacks who hit it. Bonus points if you can find the game.

One interesting aspect about this new, limited use of replay is that it won’t eliminate umpires’ judgment calls:

Any decision regarding the placement of runners, should a home run call be reversed, will be made by the crew chief. As is done in cases of fan interference, the crew chief will place the baserunners where he believes they would have been had the call been made properly. 

The default ruling is usually ground rule double, so imagine how many teams will be screwed when a fast runner on first is allowed to advance only to third. It’ll particularly hurt teams with a lot of speed and not much power. One team comes to mind immediately.

That leads me to propose a rule change: on a ground rule double where the ball bounces over the fence, a runner on first should be allowed to score if…

a) The ball hops the fence in the farthest reaches. In symmetrical parks, this would be roughly between the power alleys. In asymmetrical parks, it shouldn’t be difficult to designate the “extra base” zone. At Mays Field, it could be from the 404–foot notch to the 421–foot mark.

b) There are two outs. With two outs, a runner takes off on contact. Only the Bengie Molinas of the world can’t score from first on a two-out double, so let’s just make it an easy call. 

A ground rule double due to fan interference is different, especially when the ball is hit down the line and a fan reaches over the box seat rail. But I think the two-out scenario above makes sense here, too.

Whatever the case, any fan who interferes with a ball in play should get frogmarched out of the stadium, but not before being pelted with mustard-soaked hot dog wrappers. For season-ticket holders, if it happens a second time, how about a possible revocation of their tickets? That’ll learn ‘em!

Video replay to make accurate home run calls: the slippery slope into a newfangled lake of hellfire, or a welcome sign that baseball has finally entered the second half of the 20th century? Discuss.

Heyman then hems and haws about how questionable this scenario is and ends up tabbing the Yankees as the early favorites because, duh, it’s going to come down to money. It’s a fine way to turn a bottom-of-the-column item (speculation from an anonymous “executive who knows [Sabathia] well”) into a headline in the dog days of August.

The only conceivable way the Giants go after Sabathia is 1) if they unload Zito and the rest of his contract and 2) Sabathia agrees to some kind of hometown discount. Ain’t neither likely to happen, girlfriend.

Losing the chance to go after Sabathia: yet another feather in the dunce cap of the Zito contract. But one could argue that overbidding for C.C.’s services, which will likely cost more than Johan Santana’s extension cost the Mets (6 years, $137.5 M), is a foolish endeavor, too.

Pretend Zito wasn’t a Giant. Would you want the Giants to go after Sabathia? Is there any way this team could keep Zito and sign Sabathia? Discuss.

On to the pitching staff. I actually started with this part a few days ago,  but I got to the bullpen and started twitching and drooling on the keyboard. Beyond Brian Wilson, what in Jehosephat's name can you predict about this bunch of goons? Bruce Bochy had a recent brainstorm that Tyler Walker should only be out there against righties, who are hitting under .200 against him. But even if he thrives for the next six weeks, is anyone really enthused about penciling in The Big Sweaty as Official ROOGY of Opening Day 2009?

I dig him -- S.F. Homie and all that -- and that rumble you hear, the collective throat-clearing of all our local Mando-haters just now realizing Tyler is their new anti-guy, only makes me want to defend him more. So if he wants to come back on the cheap, fine. No guarantees about the eighth inning, or any inning, but I'll mildly advocate for him simply because depth is always nice.

Speaking of damning with faint praise: Jack Taschner. Again, cool nicknames only go so far, and "The Special Agent" goes farther than most, but I'm not feeling the love these days. Nearly 1.5 baserunners per inning and difficulty against righties is not what you want from your main set-up guy, and that's what Bochy made Taschner at the same time he (slightly) demoted The Big Sweaty. But good to have around? Sigh. Be lights-out against lefties in the final six weeks, and I'll show more, shall we say, enthusiasm.

See? I've got that same feeling again -- relievers are relievers are relievers, Romo Sadlershaw Matospineli blah blah blah. Let's just say that any of these young 'uns could stick, or none of 'em could. What I really want for Christmas is a healthy Merkin Valdez and an in-command Alex Hinshaw. Those two plus Billy Sadler minus half the walks could make things interesting next year. If Valdez remains a question mark through the rest of the season, watch for Sabean to shoot for a grizzled veteran reliever or two. Any of these guys worth a few mil? How about another round of Keiichi Yabu? My gut feeling is Sabean will convince management to set aside some dollars for at least one expensive reliever.

Now the easy part: Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Zito, Correia. Those are your starting five, though I can't shake the suspicion that one could be traded this winter. Not Lincecum and not Zito, for wildly divergent reasons. But Correia might intrigue a bargain shopper, Sanchez could be a sell-high kind of move, and Cain, well, it would be like Billy Beane trading Danny Haren. Bewildering, disappointing, but the haul Brian Sabean could get in return makes the conversation worthwhile. That conversation must not involve Sabean drinking Jager shots at a topless bar in Vegas, and it must include the fact, sometimes overlooked, that the Giants don’t have an upper-level minor leaguer ready to step into Cain’s shoes. Matt Palmer was the top guy on the AA-AAA roster when Sanchez went down. Proceed soberly, my friend.

Much will depend on Noah Lowry, who reportedly might throw in winter ball. Will he be any good? Who knows. Just counting on him to be healthy would be reckless. His injury was too weird, too severe, and too intimate with his left arm. The other wild card is Correia, not just how he pitches down the stretch but how much he might make in arbitration this winter. This was his first arb year, and he signed for a touch more than a mil. Double that, and we enter some interesting cost/benefit territory.

I want more, but there aren’t many candidates left. Dig this: only one player on the 40–man roster has never appeared in the bigs. How often does that happen?

Of course, the odd man out is the guy I adopted last year on McCovey Chronicles, Kelvin Pichardo. (If you don’t know about McChronic player adoption, hmm, there used to be an MCC wiki page or something that explained it… anyone know what happened to that?)

Pichardo has been a rooting interest of mine ever since Sabean nabbed him in exchange for Michael Tucker. If Pichardo ever makes the bigs, I thought to myself at the time of the trade, that’s not a bad return for the late-season dump of a near-worthless veteran. Of course, I didn’t realize that everyone from A ball on up would make the big leagues in 2007–2008. Except Pichardo. Come on, Sabes! 

Come September, we’ll probably see call-ups who have made their debuts already: Schierholtz, McClain, Misch, Espineli, Matos, etc. I doubt we’ll see any brand-newbies; the Giants already have plenty of young guys who should get as much playing time as possible down the stretch.

Which current Giant minor leaguers are you eager to see in September? Discuss.

Behind the plate, I’m betting on Bengie Molina. If he’s traded this winter, it means more pressure on Pablo Sandoval or Buster Posey to hurry up and take the starting job. And unless the Giants trade for another grizzled vet, it also means Holm or Alfonzo would be a significant presence on next year’s team. I don’t think the Giants want either of those scenarios. Unless they’re blown away with a trade offer, Molina stays, with Sandoval as his backup unless he completely flops in his late-‘08 audition. Sandoval’s ability to play 1B also provides flexibility.

Around the infield, the only sure thing is three bases. Every infield has them. And dirt. Nice soft red well-groomed dirt. This we know about the Giants’ infield. Otherwise, we know more about the host site of the 2024 Summer Olympics — I vote for Havana after a long successful campaign led by El Presidente Elian Gonzalez. The official mascot is Chucho, a tightly rolled cigar with arms and legs, which makes Garry Trudeau either very happy or very sad.

Smoke up, kids. How about Ivan Ochoa, starting SS? And Travis Ishikawa, at least a platoon 1B? For a while I’ve been on the bring-Rich Aurilia-back bandwagon as utility guy and RH bat off the bench. And how about Eugenio Velez as another ute, though I have my doubts that he’ll ever be another Chone Figgins. Or another Jack Kennedy, for that matter. Kevin Frandsen gets every chance to win the starting 2B job, and 3B is filled via free agency or trade. I never thought I’d say it, but Adrian Beltre is looking better and better. (Travis Denker, you ask? Needs another year in AAA, I say. Emmanuel Burriss also goes back to AAA.)

In the outfield, Fred Lewis and Aaron Rowand are in left and center. Randy Winn and Dave Roberts make no sense on the same roster, so I see a trade. More likely the Giants try to pawn off Roberts and eat most of his ‘09 salary. I just don’t see the Giants handing Nate Schierholtz the starting RF job out of spring training, no matter how many home runs he hits off the Republic of Angola’s ace reliever. It’s not just his bat: I think the team is worried, and rightly so, about RF defense at Mays Field. The Giants’ fly-ball pitchers need premium D in the outfield, especially in RF. Misplays there turn outs into doubles, singles into triples. So unless they’re blown away by a trade offer, I think Winn stays, with Schierholtz broken in slowly. (The ideal right fielder for Mays Field is a guy with plus speed, a great arm, and a right-handed bat whose home runs don’t die on the right-center field warning track. Like this guy.)

For now, I’ll round out the OF with Schierholtz and John Bowker, but don’t be surprised if one is traded this winter. Brian Horwitz might make a good 5^th OF and provide RH balance to the roster. So:

Molina
Sandoval
Ishikawa
Aurilia
Frandsen
Ochoa
Velez
outside 3B
Lewis
Rowand
Winn
Schierholtz
Bowker/Horwitz

Opening Day lineup:

Winn rf
Frandsen 2b
Lewis lf
Mysterio 3B
Molina c
Rowand cf
Ishikawa 1b
Ochoa ss

Remember, this is not necessarily my ideal nor is it my prediction of the roster next June or August. It’s also woefully short on power, again, unless the mystery 3B is Troy Glaus, 2001 Edition.

(Photo courtesy of infomatique via a Creative Commons license.)