El Lefty Malo tag:www.leftymalo.com,2009-09-07://41 2013-05-16T23:26:04Z Covering Los Gigantes since 2003. Movable Type Pro 4.31-en In Defense Of Ryan Vogelsong, Giant Playoff Hero tag:www.leftymalo.com,2013://41.22296 2013-05-16T23:04:48Z 2013-05-16T23:26:04Z Who woulda thunk that a quarter of the way into 2013, the Giants' biggest hugest ugliest problem would be pitching and defense? Other than the occasional hiccup against Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Ramon Ortiz -- you know, the real shut-down... E.L.M. http://www.leftymalo.com/cgi-bin/mt-cp.fcgi?__mode=view&blog_id=41&id=18
What we just saw in Toronto makes a Rocky Mountain rebound seem implausible, but I'm going to whistle past the graveyard and chalk up the ugliness to jet lag (first trip to the Eastern time zone all year), bad turf and weird lights. And two pitchers on the mound giving up rockets at every turn. Coors Field is Coors Field is Coors Field, which is to say there's always a 15-8 horror show lurking around the next bend, but at least the first two games are Cain and Bumgarner. Lincecum and Zito for games three and four basically means who the heck knows. It would be a fine time for Zito to throw his first decent game away from home this year.

Vogelsong mercifully doesn't pitch again until the next homestand. I'll bet he makes that start. First of all, it's at home. Second, the errors behind him last night should give him a mulligan. Third, I can't shake the memory of the terrible patch he went through down the stretch last year, only to turn into a master carver in the playoffs. There were two iconic pitches of the 2012 post-season: Zito's neck-high "fast"ball to strike out Daniel Descalso early in Game 5 in St. Louis, and the sinker on the hands Vogey threw to Miguel Cabrera in Game 3 in Detroit with a couple men on. Cabrera popped it up, and the Tigers' final chance to climb back into the Series was gone. It was the same nasty pitch Vogelsong threw 150 times to Allen Craig in the NLCS, and 147 times Craig swung and missed. We're only seven months removed from this:

Ryan Vogelsong is pitching in the post-season. That's not a statistic, it's just something to melt your heart a little bit, and wait a second, I'm not done; your heart has as much chance as an ice shelf at the end of the Romney Administration. Ryan Vogelsong is one Giant win away from a World Series ring, and he's a damn good candidate for the team's post-season MVP. Only two pitchers in major-league history have thrown at least five innings with zero or one runs allowed in their first four post-season starts: Ryan Vogelsong and Christy Mathewson. Think of all the pitchers, Hall of Famers or not, who've had spectacular post-season runs: Orel Hershiser, Denny McLain, Bob Gibson, Luis Tiant, Matt Cain. Now think of Ryan Vogelsong. Why no, I'm not... it's just... damn allergies. Sorry, I need to blow my nose and collect my thoughts.
You don't think that deserves a little more time? If he's injured, that's one thing. Perhaps a skip of one turn in the rotation to clear his mind and get a little Rags Magic going in a bullpen session. Fine. But I'm not giving up on Vogelsong yet. There are some differences in the underlying numbers (Warning: you could spend years on the page this links to), but I have no idea if the differences are red flags. His fastball is averaging about 90 MPH, about one MPH less than 2012 and two less than 2011. All his pitches are getting hit hard, but his change-up is particularly meaty for lefties. Perhaps someone more adroit with data sets can see something obvious (other than "Don't throw the change-up down the middle!").

Collectively, though, I'm worried. There are literally no reinforcements in the minors. Literally! The Fresno Grizzlies have been using JUGGS machines instead of humans in their rotation this year, and major-league rules simply don't allow pitching machines to be placed on the 40-man roster. Wait, what? Those aren't pitching machines, just guys throwing like it's batting practice? OK, maybe Chris Heston and Mike Kickham will get their sea legs -- in the Central Valley, no less -- and by mid-July they'll be kickhaming at the big-league door. Or maybe they'll go back to the UK and reform their band, which, as Heston & Kickham, churned out hit after clever, tuneful alt-rock hit in the 1980s.

I wouldn't bet big money on either, to be honest. I'd rather bet on the Magic Rags tinkering under Vogey's hood and getting that ol' Slant-Six humming again. Heck, if someone can fix Heath Bell, how hard could it be to get Vogelsong back into playoff form?

Now, about fixing the defense. Remember Brandon Crawford's weird cousin who snuck onto the team early last year and pretended to know how to play shortstop? How long did that last? Longer than we wanted, but the point is, four dreadful errors in back-to-back first innings are the exception, not the rule. The mental gaffes of a couple weeks ago that helped Arizona sweep the Giants at home are the exception, not the rule. Fix the pitching, keep hitting more than just enough, and good things will happen.

]]> One Pill Makes You Larger, and Other Tuesday Notes tag:www.leftymalo.com,2013://41.22295 2013-05-13T22:16:05Z 2013-05-14T22:22:50Z - When I think Toronto, I think Keith Richards and Paul McCartney being arrested for drug possession. That's because Richards was busted there for heroin, and I've always assumed McCartney was, too, except I looked it up and it was... E.L.M. http://www.leftymalo.com/cgi-bin/mt-cp.fcgi?__mode=view&blog_id=41&id=18 there for heroin, and I've always assumed McCartney was, too, except I looked it up and it was Japan (and marijuana). And Sweden (marijuana, again), where apparently he was touring with The Wings. Now, the Giants (not a rock band) are trying to sneak into Canada in possession of a Pill.

- The ones that mother gives you don't do anything at all.

- Speaking of Brett Pill, I want him to have a career like this guy did starting in 1999 and ending around 2002, with a little 1994 sprinkled in.

- Tonight is Barry Zito's third start of the season on the road. The first two lasted a combined 6 1/3 innings and involved 18 hits, three walks and 10 runs. He will also start Sunday in Colorado. If one of the two starts is quality, I'll be satisfied.

- Of course Timmy did. I went and wrote this, and in his next start Tim Lincecum was the single-most reason the Giants beat the Braves and convincingly snagged three of four from the NL East leaders.

- Am I going to write something similarly grumpy about Ryan Vogelsong if he gets hosed Wednesday in the Great White North? No, but I'll mentally edge closer to a review of potentially available starters on this summer's trade market.

- 'The Great White North' by the way shouldn't really apply to Toronto, one of the hemisphere's more diverse cities. Did you know that Statistics Canada estimates the majority of the population of Toronto will be "visible minorities" by 2031?

- The San Francisco Giants nearly moved to Toronto in 1976 but at the current rate will not be more than 50% visible minorities in 2031. They took another step back by deport... er, demoting Frankie Pegs Peguero and promoting Brett Pill.

- I'm teasing. Despite the situation duly noted about the Giants' lack of African-American players, I don't ascribe anything intentional to the team's ethnic makeup. 

- With Pill on board, the Giants are down to four outfielders again, unless you consider Pill or Brandon Belt a fifth outfielder. Having witnessed both players' foibles upon the greensward in past seasons, I don't think Bruce Bochy does, even if there's an emergency in which tsunami-crazed zombies devour the flesh of Angel Pagan. This would not happen in Canada, by the way, because Canadians, even the walking undead ones, are totally nice.

- Unless you're in possession of heroin. Still, being arrested by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police doesn't sound nearly as bad as getting collared by the TS-fuckin-A.

]]> The Time Has Probably Come For Tim Lincecum tag:www.leftymalo.com,2013://41.22294 2013-05-08T04:00:32Z 2013-05-08T04:53:52Z With each hanging change-up, with each two-out hit, with each leadoff walk, with each fastball at the belt, I get a little closer to saying it: Tim Lincecum needs to go to the bullpen. I'm not saying it yet. Well,... E.L.M. http://www.leftymalo.com/cgi-bin/mt-cp.fcgi?__mode=view&blog_id=41&id=18
I'm not saying it yet. Well, I wrote it, but I hedged just the tiniest bit, so if he turns this whole fershlugginer two-year mess around in spectacular fashion, I'll be able to say "I never actually said it!" But if he keeps making hittable pitches in unfortunate situations and the hammer comes down, I'll whip out the I told you so.

I don't see it turning around, though. I know the strikeouts remain high. I know the stats are actually a bit better than last year. But it's still a grim slog every fifth night. Sigh. The only team that's seen the crisp, efficient Lincecum this year is San Diego (twice). Every other start, including tonight, has been fingernails on a chalkboard.

Lincecum for a brief shining stint was a very good long man out of the bullpen. Could he be so again? Let him trade places with Chad Gaudin, who's been a starter before. Gaudin wouldn't be needed in the pen with Lincecum there, so give him a shot in the rotation. He'd probably go four or five innings max the first couple times through, so do a Colorado thing and "piggyback" him with Lincecum. If Gaudin stretches out and does a decent fifth-starter job, all the better. If he doesn't, he can always go back to the pen.

What's it going to take? One more Lincecum start like tonight? Three? Five? Whenever it happens, it'll raise eyebrows and wag tongues, but remember, the Giants have been through that before when they excluded him from the rotation in the playoffs. The distraction factor will be minimal. And it doesn't have to be permanent.

Why Lincecum and not Vogelsong, who's been a lot worse this year measured by ERA and FIP? Because if Lincecum is once again a weapon out of the bullpen, he'll save the other relievers a lot of wear and tear. And Vogelsong, after a bad late-summer run in 2012, showed in the playoffs he could make spectacular adjustments. I'd like to see if he can again in the next month. If not, I might be writing a version of this post about him in mid-June.

So, with all that, I'm ready. We're all ready. Tim Lincecum, relief pitcher. Make it happen, Boch and Rags.
]]> SF 6, AZ 4: More Rotation Commotion tag:www.leftymalo.com,2013://41.22293 2013-04-30T06:00:21Z 2013-04-30T06:14:54Z Ladies and germs, señoras y señores, here's your late-April Giants rotation report: Hooray for Madison Bumgarner! Otherwise... a terrible April for Ryan Vogelsong. A dismal month for Matt Cain, who needs to call pest control to get rid of all... E.L.M. http://www.leftymalo.com/cgi-bin/mt-cp.fcgi?__mode=view&blog_id=41&id=18 señoras y señores, here's your late-April Giants rotation report: Hooray for Madison Bumgarner!

Otherwise... a terrible April for Ryan Vogelsong. A dismal month for Matt Cain, who needs to call pest control to get rid of all those gophers. Glimmers of hope from Tim Lincecum, but nothing to point him back to those pre-2012 days. Also, Dr. Barry and Mr. Zito: it's getting a bit ridiculous. Dominant at home, shellacked on the road.

Like our hometown fog, certain thoughts creep in on little cat feet: Could this be the year? Could this be, finally, where there's no fix in Rags' magic bag of tricks, where health conspires unfavorably, where the rock of the rotation shows the inevitable wear of all those years weathering storms?

I'm inclined to say no. Other than the home runs, Cain looks fine. Vogelsong had a stretch like this last year, and he fixed it. Lincecum and Zito can muddle along like this all year, and I think the Giants would take it. Then again, all things fall part at some point. This is the second law of baseball thermodynamics, also known as Andujar's Law: Youneverknow.

And here's where the little cat feet start to sprout nasty little claws:

hestonkickham.JPGThose are the top three starters at Triple-A Fresno. It's early and all that, but the two young-ish prospects Heston and Kickham have gotten off to simply awful starts, and journeyman Petit, who had a little big-league success a few years ago, is likewise getting knocked around. (Although the K total is quite impressive.)

Another option is Chad Gaudin, who's been lights-out in relief so far. But I think the big message today is that help is not on the way. Again, it's early. No need to panic, and no need to Panik. Even if Cain and Vogelsong have an abysmal May, they'll keep plugging along. With their lack of pitching depth, the team is more likely to compensate with an upgrade of the offense rather than make drastic rotation moves. After Hunter Pence's dismal showing in Arizona Monday night -- just a hit or two and the team wouldn't have had to sweat out the win -- I'm inclined to look for ways to move him, but after a few deep breaths I'm calm again (amazing what a win can do) and say just give him a day of rest.

There are other moves to make in the near term while the rotation gets itself straightened out. First order of business: Get Hector Sanchez out of here. Let him catch regularly in Fresno and get desperately needed work, and hope that by 2014 he'll be an adequate backup. To replace him, call up Brett Pill, who's absolutely mashing in Fresno. He might be Quad-A material, but let's give him another shot as the main power source off the bench.

The Blanco/Torres platoon could be nearing its end. Blanco's holding up his end with a .361 OBP, but Torres is scuffling at the plate and, recently, in the field. As Brandon Crawford comes back to Earth, and if Brandon Belt continues to be mainly a singles-hitting first baseman, the sub-.300 slugging from the left field spot is going to be exposed like Pat Burrell in the ladies room. I wouldn't cut Torres yet, he's earned way too much respect, but if he so much as gets a cold sore, send him to the DL and bring up Roger Kieschnick from Fresno. Give him some starts. It couldn't hurt.

A couple other roster considerations:

Jean ("Hey-Ahn") Machi pitched again Monday with more good stuff to make us wonder if he might not be sent down when Jeremy ("Hair-Eh-Mi") Affeldt returns from the DL. No other reliever would be demoted, but perhaps they'll keep him and send Hector down instead, figuring the struggles of the rotation make an extra bullpenner more valuable right now than the extra pinch-hitter -- if you could call Sanchez that; he's had two plate appearances since April 18. All the other benchies have had at least five in the same span.

As I write this, post-game reports say Pablo Sandoval left Monday night's game with a tweak of the elbow problem that bothered him in spring training, but that it's not serious. If Sandoval had to hit the DL, I'd still say call up Pill, and let Noonan and Arias platoon at third. Noonan has earned a little more playing time. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. We can't, actually, because Hunter Pence just batted for us and grounded into a double play.

]]> Tim Lincecum's Infinite Slack (And Barry Zito) tag:www.leftymalo.com,2013://41.22292 2013-04-19T04:33:38Z 2013-04-19T04:34:09Z Ugly series in Cheeseland. The Giants are built for pitching, defense, and sacrifice flies, so when the opposition averages seven home runs a game, it's going to be tough going. The Giants hit tons of hard outs all series, but... E.L.M. http://www.leftymalo.com/cgi-bin/mt-cp.fcgi?__mode=view&blog_id=41&id=18
Despite the rough series, I'm focused elsewhere: Tim Lincecum's next start. In my book, he's still the big story of the season. The April funks of Brandon Belt and Buster Posey aren't yet alarming; Brandon Crawford's having a wonderful start, costly error Wednesday night notwithstanding; the bullpen is as bullpen does; and the team's winter moves and roster decisions are generally making sense.

Well, OK, comebacks are a big story right now. In six of the last nine games, the Giants have been behind by four, five, two, three, six, and three runs at the game's low point. In four of those games, they've charged back into the lead. They were a break or two away from doing it in the fifth game, Tuesday in Milwaukee, and Wednesday night they came back from a 3-0 deficit to tie but never scored again.

As fun as it is, though, I don't see all this plucky scratching-back as a season-long repeatable skill. It's fun, it's gritty, but it's not the long arc of drama. It's not a glimpse into the soul of the team. The saga of Lincecum is just that. This is Posey and Cain's team now, if you like to use shorthand, but post-Barry Bonds, it was all Lincecum, all the time. He was the bridge to the championship years. He made it fun again. We didn't call him The Franchise for nothing. We are watching the passing of an era, however brief it might be. 

So, then: Timmy. And by "Timmy," I also mean "Barry Zito." Let me explain.

Before Zito got yunieskied Tuesday, there was lots of talk of "Freaky Friday," with Zeets and Timmy switching places like Jodie Foster and Lindsay Lohan. Until Zito throws another solid seven innings, I imagine that talk will cool for a while. Indeed, Zito got roasted Tuesday on the post-game sportsphonica (these days hosted by Ray Woodson, the best KNBR has had in a while). Good-bye, slack from NLCS Game 5. Good-bye, slack from the World Series. It's like he never slapped an RBI single off Justin Verlander. 

Let's imagine it's mid-July, and Zito has taken a thrashing in one of every three outings the whole season long, and the Giants have won 67% of his starts, instead of 100%. I'd bet there would still be calls for his gun and badge, while Lincecum could go 5, maybe 6 innings per start with a 5+ ERA, and still get infinite slack.

I don't have advanced word-cloud or twitter-measure tools, so I won't be able to confirm the fan-attitude levels months down the road. But assuming I'm right, it's kind of funny. Barry Zito provokes ire in large part because of the $126 M albatross around his neck from day one. He hasn't earned his keep. Fair enough. But it's also fair to note that if Lincecum is just as bad in 2013 as he was in 2012 (and there's no reason so far to think otherwise), he'll have earned more than $40 M for being one of the worst pitchers in the bigs two years straight. 

Of course, Lincecum gave the Giants spectacular performance for pennies on the dollar until his 2012 meltdown, while Zito has been barely adequate. We could slice and dice dollars and performance in infinite permutations, but here's one more way to look at Zito's worth: In 14 seasons, he's accumulated 36.4 WAR, good for 192nd all-time among pitchers (Baseball Reference version). Before you snicker, take a look at who's just ahead and behind him with about the same career length: Bob Lemon (15 seasons, 184th); Burt Hooton and Catfish Hunter (both 15 seasons, tied for 190th); Chris Carpenter (15 seasons, 199th). Cliff Lee has the same amount of WAR as Zito, although in two fewer seasons. That's pretty good company.

Now check this out: with 23.4 WAR over seven seasons, Tim Lincecum is tied for 414th on the all-time list (with Joe Nathan, no less). If Lincecum posted the same total the next seven years, to match Zito's career length, he'd be tied with Milt Pappas for 114th all-time and just behind Ron Guidry (14 years) and Frank "Sweet Music" Viola (15 years). Wow: Lincecum could have another seven-year run with two Cy Youngs and a couple more dominant years and not even crack the top 100.

So next time you're on a barstool watching a Giants game, try this one out on your neighbor: in the end, who's going to have a better career, Tim Lincecum or Barry Zito? It might not be Freaky Friday, but it could be the Tortoise and the Hare. No one would dare argue Zito's been a better Giant than Lincecum, but the long-term career view might just cut him a little bit more slack. 

]]> First Fortnight: A Giants Mini-Review tag:www.leftymalo.com,2013://41.22291 2013-04-16T04:56:59Z 2013-04-16T05:00:46Z It's the night of a day off after a cold, weird, windy series in Chicago, and Jackie Robinson Day is winding down. The number 42 was last tinged with orange and french vanilla on the back of Kirk Reuter.I don't... E.L.M. http://www.leftymalo.com/cgi-bin/mt-cp.fcgi?__mode=view&blog_id=41&id=18 last tinged with orange and french vanilla on the back of Kirk Reuter.

I don't think the blogoworld needs another essay on Jackie Robinson. I'm not going to surprise you with any observations or opinions from left field. (After some hesitation, I'm also not going to postpone this post because of the terrible events in Boston this afternoon. My thoughts are with my friends, colleagues and readers there.)

I will note, as others have, that my favorite team in all the world, the San Francisco Giants, have had a glaring lack of African-American players in their organization of late. Other teams have, too. It's a baseball thing, and it's not a good thing. But it's also too simplistic to wring one's hands and say that baseball with a dwindling number of African-Americans is by default a bad thing, just as it's too simplistic to say, gosh, what should the NBA do to boost the number of Caucasian-Americans on team rosters? Ratios and proportions of one skin color to another don't have intrinsic moral standing or lack thereof; the policies and attitudes that lead to those proportions might very well, however. And that's where I stop on this subject. I don't have enough information at my fingertips to bloviate any more. I don't know what major-league baseball is doing, or should be doing, beyond the Jackie Robinson Day and the 42 and the inner-city baseball program, to address the racial disparities, and I have no idea if what MLB is doing is working. I'd like to know; let me know what you know, or what you've learned.

For tonight, I'll stick to on-field events. Here's one good thing: The Giants have won a lot more games than they've lost these first two weeks, because they've taken six of seven from the stumblin' bumblin' Cubs and Rockies who thoroughly deserved to have six of seven taken from them. It's worth a short review: 

- The Giants have scored 61 runs, or 4.7 per game. They've allowed 54 runs, 4.2 per game. It's not quite the same pitching-and-defense-first formula we're used to. Since 2009, the Giants have finished first, second, or 8th (last year) in MLB runs allowed. (Fun stat of the night: Atlanta is allowing less than two runs a game so far: 23 total in 12 games.)

- Three starts in, Tim Lincecum looks exactly the same as last year. It's not Happy Lincecum Day, it's Groundhog Lincecum Day. Sunday's storyline was one bad inning, but a lot of good signs from the other four innings. I'm sure we heard that one a few times in 2012. I'm not asking for a rotation makeover. I'm just resigning myself to this particular reality. Until a guy like Chris Heston or Mike Kickham forces the issue in Triple-A (no signs of that yet), and the Giants no longer can afford Timmy pitching every fifth day, this is the movie. Grab your popcorn and settle in.

- Nick Noonan: 6 for 12 to start his major league career, and that includes three pinch hits. Carpe diem, kid.

- Small sample size, of course, but odd bullpen results so far. Righties Romo, Casilla and Gaudin have been stellar. All the lefties have had rough times (especially Affeldt in Chicago), and Kontos has sandwiched two terrible innings around a handful of clean appearances.

- Barry Zito is MVP of the fortnight. His start Tuesday should be fascinating. Miller Park in Milwaukee has been a retractable dome of horrors for him. Here and here and here and here are his last four starts. He's either been ridiculously wild or getting pounded, or both; twice he's somehow managed to minimize the damage before his early hook. 

]]> SF 7, CHC 6: Grind, Grind, Grind tag:www.leftymalo.com,2013://41.22290 2013-04-12T04:50:49Z 2013-04-12T04:50:25Z Watching Vogelsong -- which means "grinding noise" in German -- force his way through six innings Thursday afternoon in Wrigley Field, Nova Scotia, I thought about the man's different faces. There's the nostril-flare gameday comin'-at-you face. There's the grumpy, mouth-twisted,... E.L.M. http://www.leftymalo.com/cgi-bin/mt-cp.fcgi?__mode=view&blog_id=41&id=18
But sometimes in the past two-plus renaissance years, he has switched into a different mode. Vogelsong always refuses to throw balls down the middle, but for whatever reason, once in a while his stuff doesn't get the same number of swing-throughs. So there are walks. Like today. And there are bad luck bleeders and bloopers, like today and his previous start against St. Louis. And the first-pitch sinker at the knees gets blasted through the Nova Scotian wind and into the bleachers.

In other words, it's fairly easy to watch Vogelsong and say, yep. Pretty much the same guy who did the two-seam nasty to Allen Craig and Miguel Cabrera last October. He's fundamentally the same pitcher. And we all go to bed tonight feeling cheery because the Giants won and Vogelsong went six innings, grind, grind, grind, and he got a W and, wow, what a grinder.

Now, for your consideration, Tim Lincecum. He's also battled his way through two ineffective starts and "given his team a chance to win." Grinder? Only if the Giants' offense continues to let Timmy off the hook and the defense doesn't compound his mistakes.

Grant made a couple excellent points yesterday: Despite the drop in general velocity, Lincecum is still getting lots of swing-throughs; but he's also throwing far too many balls out of the strike zone. There's another point about Lincecum that I haven't seen explored much: Whatever has been wrong with him since April 2012, it certainly didn't affect him in his five games out of the bullpen in last year's playoffs. He looked like Sad Timmy in his lone playoff start -- NLCS Game 4 -- but on either side of that, he was dominant, recording K rates and BB rates out of the bullpen that looked like Cy Young Timmy, not the human version.

Of course five bullpen appearances are a small sample size, but the stark difference cannot be ignored. Unlike one of Vogelsong's dizzy spells, it can't be chalked up to a little bit of luck lost and a few more pitches just a wee bit off. Smooth Vogey and Grinder Vogey are basically the same guy, while Lost Starter Timmy and Bullpen Super Timmy are Jekyll and Hyde. Why?

I'm pretty sure it's not injury. If a deteriorating elbow or shoulder were making Lincecum lose it suddenly in at least one inning of every start, why didn't it happen in the playoffs -- except in his one playoff start? The answer can't be "Because out of the bullpen he was only in a short while and could let it fly," because he went multiple innings in every appearance, as much as 4 1/3 in the game in Cincy when Zito made an early exit (and the Giants, of course, won). Bullpen Timmy threw anywhere from 24 to 55 pitches per outing; Lost Starter Timmy often has had his bursts of awfulness well within that window. He never once lost it as a playoff reliever. So unless the adrenaline that comes from a mid-game bullpen assignment in the playoffs is so potent that it numbs all pain, I'm going with something other than injury as the source of this madness.

And seeing how, despite the lower fastball velocity, Lincecum is still striking out a healthy 9 batters per 9 innings, I'm going with something other than "stuff." Lack of grindability? Occasional cannabinoid receptor misfire? Acute lack of ass-kickingBuster Posey?

Sorry, no. Not getting into that one in this post.

A few other notes from Thursday:

- If there's a specific way to pitch against a guy who seems to hit everything on a line back up the middle, teams will start to do it against Nick Noonan. Or play the center fielder thirty feet behind second base. Doesn't look he'll hit too many home runs, but he might take out a few pitchers.

- Sergio Romo's secret weapon is the mind-fuck. Anthony Rizzo, who loves first-pitch fastballs and could hit one into Lake Michigan at any moment, represented the winning run in the ninth and two out. He watched Romo's first-pitch fastball that missed its outside target and went right... down.... the middle. Strike one. He then watched a perfect backdoor slider. Strike two. Just when he thought another slider was coming, it was the two-seam front-door sinker that snuck across the inside corner (maybe). Strike three.

- Chicagoland Haiku time:

In the cold wet wind
One hundred Northside losses 
Whispered cruel hello
 

]]> A Bunch of Folks And A Flag-Raising tag:www.leftymalo.com,2013://41.22289 2013-04-06T03:37:31Z 2013-04-06T07:29:21Z I was in the house Friday for the flag-raising ceremony and the ballgame. All that, and the best moment actually might have been the long standing ovation for Bengie Molina, now a St. Louis coach (no, not the conditioning coach).... E.L.M. http://www.leftymalo.com/cgi-bin/mt-cp.fcgi?__mode=view&blog_id=41&id=18
The day went on, the festivities stretched on. But something about it felt low-key. For one, no military fly-over, as many noted on the Twitter (with a suggestion that the sequester had its silver linings); and far more notable, no Train. No Train, no pain, I say. 

The Giants chose a subset of the team, perhaps at random, I'm not sure, to take the championship banner relay the final steps, up through the bleachers, and to the flagpole. Pence, Lincecum, Cain, Pagan, Romo... what was the rhyme or reason? I'm not complaining, I'm just curious. Doing the team thing -- bringing the flag to the park by sea, on a fire department tugboat, then letting a small group of, um, veteran fans hoist it into the premises -- also made the 2011 decision to let Brian Wilson do the flag-raising solo look a little weird. Why did he get all the fun? 

Still, the all-in-this-together motif of the ceremony could have used a wee bit more spice, or perhaps gravitas. I liked Andy Baggarly's pre-game speculation -- ultimately unfounded -- that this time the honor should have gone to Willie McCovey, Willie Mays, or Mike Murphy. 

Again, I'm not complaining. I'm just noting that the day's ceremony seemed a bit more... thrown together. The fire department. Old people with Tim Lincecum "Freak 55" jerseys. The traveling cast of Jersey Boys singing the national anthem. Wait. What? I don't expect Tony Bennett to glide out of the shadows at every momentous Giant occasion, but wasn't there someone with a bit more local connection available? Then again, be careful what you ask for, because a few straggling leftovers from the Jefferson Starship ended up singing -- or is it "singing"? -- God Bless America and Take Me Out To the Ballgame later in the day. 

There was a bit of loose-limbed community theater to the festivities, and I was half expecting Corky St. Clair from "Waiting for Guffman" to come out and lead an 8th inning sing-along of YMCA. Or, from another angle, it was a glorified gathering in the park with a bunch of friends... hey, wait a second, maybe that was the point. 

I love World Series championships, but I really really never need to hear "We Are The Champions" again. Ever. Shoot it into outer space, where no one can hear you scream classic rock anthems, along with "Stairway to Heaven," "Don't Stop Believin'" and "Freebird." We can keep "Lights." We can also keep the two random guys who played drums on the field, first providing the drum roll (please!) as the flag approached on the fire boat, then adding a little extra oomph whenever they saw fit to the recorded music blasting on the PA. I liked those guys. 

It was quirky, it was a bit aw-shucks, kind of like a certain first baseman. Then a flag went up and rolled and snapped in the breeze. It glowed even more orange because the sun came out and stayed out most of the day. And then there was baseball, which was basically Barry Zito pitching and Pablo Sandoval sprawling, catching and throwing. That was the game today, and it was over in a few blinks. 
]]> What We Talk About When We Talk About Taking Two of Three From The Dodgers tag:www.leftymalo.com,2013://41.22288 2013-04-04T17:00:27Z 2013-04-04T17:01:41Z I didn't catch much of Wednesday's game, but from what I caught of it -- and what I caught of the post-game radio chit-chat -- when we talk about a solid opening series against a team the rest of America... E.L.M. http://www.leftymalo.com/cgi-bin/mt-cp.fcgi?__mode=view&blog_id=41&id=18
And for good reason. Buster Posey and Matt Cain might now be the faces of the franchise, but Lincecum was this team's first rock star in the post-Barry Lamar era. He was the freaky poetic electricity that o'er-arc'ed from the laughable mid-aughts to the sparks of promise in 2009 to the fireworks of 2010. Don't forget, he also authored the most dominant playoff game in team history, the 14-K shutout of Atlanta to kick off the 2010 post-season. Never forget.

And we don't. Which is why "What's wrong with Timmy?" is a much more fraught question for Giants fans. It's innocence lost, youth fraying around the edges, the underdog story retreating in the rear view mirror (although the Dodgers did their best until April 2nd to make the world think the underdog label should remain plastered on the Giants' rumps like a "Kick Me" sign). We want this ride to continue with loose-limbed Tim as we remember him, but we know it probably won't.

I heard Lincecum's first two innings Wednesday, which didn't vary much from the first couple innings of most of his starts last year. The difference more or less was that Matt Kemp hit two balls hard into Angel Pagan's glove. This was 2012 Lincecum. I don't know if 2012 Lincecum will also show up in his next start, and the one after that. (Probably not, since the hair would have to re-grow quick quick style like a bong-rippin' chia pet.) But I know two of the big bugaboos from last year -- a decline in fastball velocity after an inning or two, and a disconcerting lack of fastball control -- went into hiding during his spectacular bullpen work in last year's playoffs then -- bwah hah hah! -- re-emerged from the shadows in his first start of 2013.

Hector Sanchez did not help. Regular readers of this blog will know that I'm not a big fan. If you're going to employ a backup catcher, make sure he either hits like crazy or provides solid defense behind the plate. Sanchez does neither. I'm not surprised Bochy double-switched him out of the game in the sixth inning.

Now, I don't advocate kicking him to the curb, unless that curb is outside Grizzly Field in Fresno, or whatever the heck it's called. Sanchez has potential, and I'd love to see him get more seasoning in Triple A. Perhaps a few months, perhaps a full season. Teach him how to frame pitches, teach him more plate discipline. If the Giants insist on a three-catcher roster, I don't know the answer. Jackson Williams, the glove man at Triple-A, would probably serve as break-glass-in-emergency guy -- the Guillermo Quiroz role now -- but you don't want Quiroz promoted to "key late-inning pinch hitter." Yuck on that. The bench is already thin as-is with Joaquin Arias as the main pinch-hitting threat.

Also, for those of you sitting on my shoulder whispering that I'm reading far too much into one start, I'll concede that Lincecum was also hurt by a Buster Posey error, making his two runs unearned despite seven walks in five innings.

But then I'll flick you off my shoulder and scold: Don't let the "unearned" fool you. Be worried.

Then again: Series win in LA against the Los Angeles Yankodgers, and a Hunter Pence opposite field line drive that cut through the night smog and into the right-center field bleachers. What a clout, I say! Ear worm of the day: "When the Giants come to town, it's bye-bye baby," and unlike most ear worms, let it burrow deep into my brain and drown out all the confounding consternation over Tim Lincecum.
]]> LA 4, SF 0: Meet The Kershaws tag:www.leftymalo.com,2013://41.22285 2013-04-01T23:14:32Z 2013-04-01T23:21:17Z There's Clayton Kershaw the pitcher. Him, we know about. No surprise. Throws all four pitches with subtle or ridiculous movement, depending upon his whim and the flick of his wrist. Makes the non-Brett Pill Giants take half-hearted swings at the... E.L.M. http://www.leftymalo.com/cgi-bin/mt-cp.fcgi?__mode=view&blog_id=41&id=18
But this other Kershaw guy, who swings with gusto in case he hits something? His home run to dead center off George Kontos to lead off the 8th was a huge shock, although may I point out that I tweeted this about an hour earlier:

kershawtweet.JPGKershaw struck out on that pitch, but as Posey fired the ball around the infield, Cain turned away, wiped his brow and allowed himself a little bemused smile. I don't have the video replay, maybe I'm imagining it, but I don't think so. I'll bet someone mentions that swing in the post-game.

It was clear the Giants would be lucky to score just one today, and who knows, they might have if Buster Posey's liner in the seventh with Pablo on first had sneaked down the third-base line. Instead, their hardest-hit ball of the day found Luis Cruz's glove.

Matt Cain was never hit hard, but he found himself in a corner a few times as the Dodgers sprinkled around a few bleeders, a walk and a hit batsman. While Kershaw flat dominated, Cain painted. He might still be a power pitcher from time to time, but he's far more artist, throwing tight sliders on the corners, moving the 90-91 MPH fastball around the zone, playing cat-and-mouse with the change-up, dropping a medium-sized curve every so often. It was beautiful to watch him work with men on base, but the difference today between his stuff and Kershaw's equaled a few more base runners, more foul balls (especially against Matt Kemp in the first inning), and a lot of work out of the stretch. Cain was up around 90 pitches after six innings, and he was done. 

Would a tiring Cain in the seventh and eighth have fared better than the Giant bullpen? Zap over to your little parallel universe, replay the game in its entirety, and let me know when you're back. I'm not going to second-guess Bruce Bochy on this one. I like the chances of guys like Kontos, Casilla and Affeldt matching zeroes with Kershaw, it just didn't happen today. 

]]> Good Morning, It's Opening Day tag:www.leftymalo.com,2013://41.22284 2013-04-01T05:39:01Z 2013-04-01T16:55:30Z Before the game starts today, here are a few things you might like to know. - Under Bruce Bochy, the Giants have won 8 games and lost 10 in season-opening series. In 2010, they swept Houston and went on to... E.L.M. http://www.leftymalo.com/cgi-bin/mt-cp.fcgi?__mode=view&blog_id=41&id=18
- Under Bruce Bochy, the Giants have won 8 games and lost 10 in season-opening series. In 2010, they swept Houston and went on to win the World Series. In 2012, they were swept in Arizona and went on to win the World Series.

- In his career, Matt Cain has faced 606 Dodger batters. Eleven have grounded into double plays, nine have hit home runs. The Dodgers are the only division rival to have fewer homers than GIDPs against Cain.

- Number of Guillermo Quiroz opening-day major-league plate appearances: 0.

- No Giant on the active roster has hit a regular-season home run against the Dodger starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw.

- In Kershaw's five seasons, major league hitters have produced a .215 / .288 / .319 line against him. That's an OPS of .608.

- Current Giants (including those on the DL or in the minors) have compiled a .475 OPS against him. The most embarrassing line is Hunter Pence's 1-for-23 with no walks, although Andres Torres' 2-for-22 (and a walk) isn't far behind. Let's hope that Pablo Sandoval is healthy enough to start, because he's done decently against Kershaw (.276 / .313 / .375). Marco Scutaro is 5 for 10 lifetime, which reminds me just a smidge of Chili Davis' career numbers against a certain young phenom:

chili vs doc.JPGProvided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/31/2013.

(Pardon the funky screen grab instead of a properly generated table, but I'm having technical difficulties.)

There's not much left to say or analyze. I don't make preseason predictions, but I expect the Dodgers, Giants and Diamondbacks to be scrumming for the division down to the wire. (Least discussed NL West factor this off-season: The Arizona rotation.)

The Giants kept their team intact, the Dodgers hope their money translates into wins. The rivalry is renewed. The games finally count. Even if one game among 162 is of little significance, this should be good. Ladies and gentlemen, señoras y señores, play ball.

]]> The Buster Blockbuster, and Other Pre-Opening Day Notes tag:www.leftymalo.com,2013://41.22283 2013-03-31T22:06:08Z 2013-03-31T22:20:38Z I go wander in the desert with my tribe for a week -- well, okay, there was also a heated swimming pool and a nearby Trader Joe's involved -- and shit happens. I'm writing this late Saturday night, and just... E.L.M. http://www.leftymalo.com/cgi-bin/mt-cp.fcgi?__mode=view&blog_id=41&id=18
I'm writing this late Saturday night, and just a few hours earlier the Giant brass decided to take a third catcher, the irrepressibly lifetime-horrible hitter Guilllermo Quiroz, for their Opening Day roster. Hector Sanchez, recovering from a throwing-shoulder strain, is apparently not enough backup catcher. Or, from another angle:

Buster Posey is so awesome, he needs TWO backup catchers.

So instead of a semi-legitimate right-handed hitter who has playable outfield skills (Cole Gillespie, Francisco Peguero), the Giants take a backup to the backup catcher, which means they think their backup catcher has semi-legitimate right-handed hitting skills. Or is more injured than this weekend's reports would have us believe. The sample size, 168 career major-league plate appearances, is almost too silly to note, but I'll give you the numbers anyway: Against lefties, Sanchez has hit .277 / .310 / .371.

My take: This is one of those first-week-of-the-season moves that seems far more significant because, hey, OPENING DAY, but by mid-May we'll have forgotten all about it. (Remember when Mel Hall made the Giants' opening day roster in 1996?) I'm guessing the master plan is to ditch Quiroz ASAP and bring up Gillespie or Pegs as soon as Hector's shoulder proves totally sound. Or something like that. With major league pitching staffs the way they are, bench positions are at a premium. There is no way the Giants are looking forward to a full year with three catchers on board and Bruce Bochy hamstrung in his late-game moves. 

The much bigger news of the past couple days, of course, is the Posey extension. You all know the details by now. I won't rehash them. Nearly $200 million, with the final option year, and Buster could be a Giant until he's 35. You know how many studly awesome mid-20-something catchers were still tearing it up at 35? Grant beat me to that punch, and the answer is not many. So most Giants fans except those who are addicted to teen-vampire serials are aware that Posey will age, perhaps to the point of not making the last few years of his contract worth it.

With that, then, the bigger question becomes: Will this contract, with its annual $21.5 million annual payouts be the thing we all point to when the Giants come in last, once again, in the Nebula West Division of the Inter-Galactic League, as the albatross that doomed the franchise to years of fruitless rebuilding? Will the 2022 Giants, with half the Tethys-9 Triple-A squad playing by the bay all summer, with retreads Grmykllzk Menghtetethdtoppp (first Mercurian in the big leagues) patching things up in left and Windows Vista Service Pack 34.89 at short, be a sorry replay of the 2006-2007 squads, all half-priced in-fill around an aging slugger?

With Bruce Bochy and Brian Sabean still in their chairs at that point -- or it sure seems headed that way, what with the latest contract extensions -- I'll cautiously say no. The Giants have learned that lesson. Since the last-days-of-Magowan debacle, Sabean has built a much better scouting department that should keep feeding the big club with complementary players and the occasional surprise. A delicious run such as Lincecum-Bumgarner-Posey in consecutive draft years might not be reachable as long as the team keeps winning, with the accompanying low draft positions, but there's a certain solid competence that seems to have settled in. What's more, the Giants consistently out-class their division rivals in knowing which farmhands to keep and which to trade or let walk, even though their division rivals have consistently drafted more eventual big-league talent. (I did that research last September.)  I don't fear a Buster-Posey-and-the-Seven-Dwarves scenario.

I do think, however, the Cain + Posey money the next several years will keep the Giants from shelling out other super-mega contracts, which means a big rebound from Tim Lincecum could price him out of the team's reach. A lack of rebound could also mean his Giant time is up. More intriguing will be the middle ground: what happens if Timmy is good enough in 2013 to drum up some free-agent interest, but not enough to garner an elite contract? Do the Giants get involved in the mid-market bidding?

Finally, congratulations to Nick Noonan, who made the Opening Day squad more from being in the right place in the right time than from any spectacular run or breakout performance. Most non-blue-chip players don't have the talent to take advantage of their one big break. It'll be interesting to see how Noonan handles his. 





]]> The Noonan Question tag:www.leftymalo.com,2013://41.22282 2013-03-22T18:06:25Z 2013-03-22T23:23:51Z Please let the season start please oh please oh please. We're mired in the dog days of spring. The most excitement we've had in weeks, other than watching Angel Pagan run around in a funny uniform, has come with glaringly... E.L.M. http://www.leftymalo.com/cgi-bin/mt-cp.fcgi?__mode=view&blog_id=41&id=18
We all did a little fist-pump dance at today's news of Wilson Valdez getting the axe. He has the skills of Manny Burriss, and he's seven years older! Will the Giants sign another backup infielder? Will they wait for Tony Abreu, who's got a maling- ... oops, I mean lingering leg muscle injury, to heal and win the job? Will Nick Noonan, already on the 40-man roster, get a shot? If Pablo Sandoval is indeed good to go on Opening Day, with Joaquin Arias re-ensconsed as the primary utility infielder, the answer to all these questions is "Who cares?" The secondary utility infielder has as much influence as the Vice President of the United States, staying ready in case someone gets hurt or there's an intractable stalemate.

Sure, Ryan Theriot scored the winning run of the 2012 World Series, but was it due to some ineffable Theriotness that the situation otherwise would have lacked? Another backup infielder had just as much chance to make weak contact and flip a ball into the outfield that night, be bunted over by Brandon Crawford, and be waved home by Tim Flannery on Marco Scutaro's single. Well, OK, perhaps sabermetrically speaking Nick Noonan, based on his mediocre minor-league batting record, would have had 32% less chance to make contact that night, or something like that. Perhaps Noonan is practically guaranteed never to hit a major-league home run -- aka Theriotness -- while Abreu could at least run into one every two months. Who cares? It's all replacement-level dithering from here on out. I'm quickly warming to the idea of giving Noonan a few weeks in the bigs to see how he responds. [UPDATE: Noonan hit a home run in Friday afternoon's game against the Rockies. It was spring training, and the pitcher was Miguel Batista.]

The other option is to go with the best right-handed hitter in that spot, infield backup glove be damned. Which might mean Cole Gillespie and Frankie Pegs both make the roster, at least until Brett Pill recovers from surgery.

See what I mean? Excitement!

I need to divert myself with pleasant thoughts of...

- Heckling Carl Crawford, Dodgers' left fielder. If he plays, that is.

- Another year without Scott Hairston in the NL West.

- Brandon Belt hitting his 10th home run of the year.

- Delmon Young playing the outfield at Mays Field, if he can get healthy by the time the Phillies visit in May. If he's out there, it would be slapstick to rival Adam Dunn's handiwork when he roamed our bayside greensward for the Diamondbacks.

- And best of all, the return of Brian Wilson. I predict he'll be back on the Giants' 25-man roster by July 15.

]]> A Month Without Panda tag:www.leftymalo.com,2013://41.22280 2013-03-18T16:36:31Z 2013-03-19T16:40:17Z Heading into the Cactus League home stretch, the only San Francisco Giant injuries of note are Hector Sanchez -- with ominous pain in his shoulder -- Pablo Sandoval, who is having his right elbow examined, and Jose Mijares, also dealing... E.L.M. http://www.leftymalo.com/cgi-bin/mt-cp.fcgi?__mode=view&blog_id=41&id=18 ominous pain in his shoulder -- Pablo Sandoval, who is having his right elbow examined, and Jose Mijares, also dealing with elbow problems. Let's play a thought game. Someone comes up to you at the water cooler and says, "Friend, have you heard? The Giants are heading into the 2013 regular season without ______, and it could be a month before he returns."

Now put each of those three names into that sentence. Let me guess. "Without Jose Mijares" didn't raise your blood pressure at all, and in fact, depending on the ferocity of your Dan Runzler fetish, might have provided a wee frisson of guilty pleasure.

"Without Hector Sanchez" -- a more complicated response. The thought of a journeyman like Guillermo Quiroz replacing Sanchez for a month sounds grim, but frankly, it won't take much to match what Sanchez gave the Giants last year on a month-by-month basis. If Sanchez's injury requires a little bit of DL time, but not a lot, it makes absolutely no sense finding a different backup. And if Quiroz's defense is far more polished (again, wouldn't take much), Hector might find himself, well, Sanchez'd by Quiroz, with the pitching staff threatening to mutiny if "Q" -- a fairly safe guess at his nickname -- is sent down to make room for healthy Hector.
 
OK, last one. "Without Pablo Sandoval." Ulp. You're sweating. You're fidgety. You need a smoke break. This is no good, no good at all, you mumble. Well, probably, but a funny thing happened on the way to the DL: The Giants have fared quite well without Panda.

We all know about 2010, when he was benched down the stretch and in the playoffs. In 2011, he broke his first hamate bone and the Giants went 25-16 without him. In 2012, he broke his other hamate bone and pulled a groin muscle, and during those two DL stints the Giants went 29-24 without him. All told over the past two years, the Giants had a winning percentage of .574 sans Panda. With him, they were .547. (Their total winning percentage in 2011-2012 was .556.)

This could be total coincidence. Or just what good teams do: get along pretty well for a while without a big cog. Or it could be a small but telling statement about the hidden costs of Sandoval's defense, even though some advanced metrics have rated him favorably. Or it could be a smart manager getting the most of his back-up plans.

In 2010, Sandoval was at sea, and Juan Uribe made a difference. But in 2011 and 2012, Sandoval was crushing the ball (.904 OPS, .912 OPS) before each hamate injury. Miguel Tejada was his replacement in 2011, Joaquin Arias in 2012. Arias played tight D at third, and that's about the best it got while Panda was on the shelf. We hazily remember Arias doing all right with the bat last year -- and overall he did hit lefties reasonably well -- but in the month of games he started at third base in place of Pablo (May 8 to June 12), his overall OPS dropped from .832 to .597. 

Bottom line is, the Giants without Pablo Sandoval have fared slightly better the past two years than the Giants with Pablo Sandoval. Don't get me wrong. I don't want to try the experiment yet again; I want a healthy happy hammerin' Panda in the lineup. But the prospect of a month or so in 2013 with Joaquin Arias at third and a couple weird scrubs as backup infielders isn't turning my knees to jelly.

I guess that's what they mean by baseball being a "team game," like it's actually played by a team -- unless the guy not able to play with your team is Buster Posey.

]]> ¡Mofongo! Or, What's Good For Puerto Rico Is Good For The Giants tag:www.leftymalo.com,2013://41.22279 2013-03-16T07:24:58Z 2013-03-16T08:06:28Z E.L.M. http://www.leftymalo.com/cgi-bin/mt-cp.fcgi?__mode=view&blog_id=41&id=18
That's the result of Friday night's World Baseball Classic action, a tournament I've avoided commenting upon until now. And don't hold your breath the next few days. I'm not sure what else I'll be able to say about the Dominicans trouncing the field in San Francisco, although I know some Puerto Ricans who might be happy to share some Dominican jokes. But I don't and won't condone that kind of behavior. 

But back to the topic at hand. This is a good thing, this ignominious ouster. We Americans will still defend our shores vigorously against North Korean missiles; our national readiness has not been compromised. Better yet, Ryan Vogelsong and Jeremy Affeldt will be back in Giants' camp soon, doing extremely boring things in extremely boring games. This is excellent news. 

The WBC is hyper-vigilant against player injury, especially with pitchers. Heck, in this scintillating second round, starting pitchers could only go 80 pitches. This is no knock against the tournament. I've been eagerly checking the scores. I'm glad it exists -- good on ya, Bud Selig -- and I'm glad they have safeguards in place. 

But I have a confession. Team USA! winning the WBC with a whole lotta Ryan Vogelsong on the mound doesn't appeal to me as much as Team San Francisco Giants entering April with a healthy Ryan Vogelsong on the mound. I have no idea what's happening inside his shoulder right now; I'm sure it's fine, and it probably would have been fine with one more start in the WBC. But I'm not disappointed that the plug has been pulled. 

It helps that I have not a single jingoistic bone in my body. Well, OK, except for platform diving. And that dancing-ribbon-gymnastics thing. USA! USA! 

But in international baseball, I'm just as happy to see the Japanese, the Honkballers, the Dominicans, or even more, the P-Ricans win the whole damn thing. (Yes, I have a soft spot, and not just because of the mofongo, although if you're in the Haight-Ashbury you damn well better eat here.) Qué bonita bandera, y qué guapo Angel Pagan. I got chills watching the replay of him squeeze the final out against the Yanquis earlier tonight.

   

My feelings about Vogey and Affeldt returning to the fold don't extend to Pagan. I have no empirical evidence, but I can't imagine the same dangers lurking for a center fielder. Go get 'em, tiger. However, I have to be intellectually consistent: Here's hoping the Dominican starting pitchers throw complete games and their manager Tony Peña doesn't even use Santiago Casilla.
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